domenica 12 febbraio 2012

The Economist :'lEuropa e' disunita e rischia grosso, forse gli eurobonds......ma la Germania e' contraria e rischia di "affondare col titanic"

..........The wrong lesson?
The euro zone has, in effect, tried to create America’s no-bail-out doctrine of 1840 with neither Hamilton’s federal structure nor Roosevelt’s counter-cyclical tools. Euro members are walking on a wobbly tightrope without a safety net. When the storm has blown they have found themselves tied together by the financial markets, meaning that if one were to fall, all would risk doing so.A rescue fund has been improvised, though it is not big enough for the largest debtors, such as Italy. Tougher fiscal rules, with monitoring and penalties, including a new treaty requiring members to adopt balanced-budget rules, will strengthen the confederal set-up. But as Hamilton might have predicted, deeper intrusion into national policies may in time mean growing strife.The euro zone will not become the United States of Europe any time soon. But it needs to consider elements of fiscal federalism to deal with its biggest weaknesses. A European-level bank deposit-guarantee scheme could avert bank runs. A one-off pooling of debt could arrest the run on sovereigns. Even without a big budget, a European unemployment-insurance scheme could be created to help deflect asymmetric shocks. Germany wants tough rules? Look at Brazil’s measures of 2000, including the threat of jail for breaches of fiscal rules. The euro zone has much to learn from others.

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